NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication and
assumes that these policies remain in place for the duration of the forecast period.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies,
unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised
on minimally higher output as all wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels,
up 115,000 bushels from last month as higher Soft Red Winter and White Winter
production offset lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) production. The all wheat yield is virtually
unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million
on strong early 2025/26 sales, especially for HRW. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are
lowered 25 million bushels to 898 million but are still 7 percent above last year. The
projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $0.10 per bushel higher at $5.40 on the
reduced stocks.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption
and trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are projected down 1.2 million tons to
1,072.6 million, mainly on reduced beginning stocks for Russia more than offsetting
higher production for the EU and India. EU production is raised to 136.6 million on
improved conditions in Spain compared to last year. India’s production is raised to a
record 117.5 million on the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate. Global consumption
is raised 1.8 million tons to 809.8 million, mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use
for Nigeria, Sudan, and India. World trade is 1.3 million tons higher at 214.3 million on
increased exports for the United States and the EU. Projected 2025/26 global ending
stocks are lowered 3.0 million tons to 262.8 million on reductions for Russia, the United
States, Iraq, and Turkey.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with
lower beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA
will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of
planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are down 50 million bushels reflecting a
forecast increase in exports for 2024/25. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, based on
reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data
during the month of May, and current outstanding sales. With no use changes for
2025/26, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average
farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.551
billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and trade, and
smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher with an
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increase for India. Foreign barley production is up slightly, reflecting increases for the EU
and Argentina that are partly offset by a decline for Syria.
Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger barley exports for Argentina. For
2024/25, corn exports are lowered for Argentina but raised for the United States and
Canada. Corn imports are lowered for China and Canada with increases for Turkey,
Indonesia, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced, with cuts to
China, South Africa, India, and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina.
Global corn ending stocks, at 275.2 million tons, are down 2.6 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, reduced
domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected U.S. all rice production
is lowered 4.9 million cwt to 214.4 million with a decrease in long-grain that is partially
offset by an increase in medium- and short-grain. The excessive spring precipitation in
the Delta is expected to result in lower rice area in this region compared to the NASS
Prospective Plantings. The smaller long-grain area is partly offset by higher medium
short grain plantings in California. Ample irrigation supplies and limited crop alternatives
in California are expected to result in higher rice plantings compared to NASS
Prospective Plantings. All rice 2025/26 imports are raised 1.5 million cwt to a record 50.7
million with increases for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain. All rice projected
domestic and residual use is lowered 3.0 million cwt to 169.0 million on reduced long
grain supplies. Projected all rice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 95.0 million (all
medium- and short-grain) on increased supplies of this class. Projected 2025/26 all rice
ending stocks are lowered 0.9 million cwt to 46.6 million. The projected 2025/26 all rice
season-average farm price is raised by $0.30 per cwt to $13.50.
The 2025/26 global rice outlook this month is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and
ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5.1 million tons to 728.9 million, mainly on higher
beginning stocks and production for India. Beginning stocks for India are raised on
current stocks levels and a 3.0-million-ton production increase for the 2024/25 crop to
150.0 million on the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate. India’s 2025/26 production
is also raised 3.0 million tons to 151.0 million on an early arrival of the southwest
monsoon, abundant precipitation to date, and the government’s higher minimum support
price for farmers. World 2025/26 consumption is raised 2.3 million tons to a record 541.1
million, largely on India. Global 2025/26 trade is up 0.9 million tons to 61.7 million,
primarily on India. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are raised 2.8 million tons to
187.8 million, mostly on India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
OILSEEDS: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged this
month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel;
soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $310 per short ton and 46 cents per pound,
respectively.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher beginning
stocks, unchanged production, slightly higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Beginning
stocks are raised on a 1-million-ton reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing
year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date. Crush for
2025/26 is raised 0.1 million tons on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa, and the United
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Kingdom. With exports unchanged, global ending stocks are raised 1.0 million tons to
125.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for China. Another notable revision is higher palm
oil production for Malaysia for 2024/25 and 2025/26 based on an expected recovery after
widespread flooding impacted operations earlier in the year.
SUGAR: Sugar production for 2025/26 is projected at 9.254 million short tons, raw value
(STRV), a reduction of 30,889 from last month. Beet sugar production at 5.150 million
STRV is reduced 29,750 from last month on a small decrease in projected sugarbeet
yield. Florida cane sugar production is reduced a small 1,139 STRV from last month to
match processors’ forecast production of 2,015,861. Louisiana sugar production is
unchanged. Imports at 2.474 million STRV are unchanged from last month. The
additional refined specialty TRQ had not been announced by the time of release of this
WASDE. Beginning stocks are projected 13,585 STRV higher due to a reduction in
2024/25 deliveries for human consumption of 25,000 STRV plus a modest increase in
high-tier tariff/other imports of only 8,621 STRV more than offsetting production
decreases of 20,036. Deliveries for human consumption for 2025/26 are decreased
25,000 STRV to 12.125 million STRV in line with the reduction made for 2024/25.
Residually determined ending stocks are at 1.443 million STRV, very close to the level of
last month. The ending stocks-to-use of 11.71 percent compares with last month’s 11.62.
Mexico production for 2025/26 is projected at 5.094 million metric tons (MT), the same as
last month. Based on FAS Mexico City reporting, area harvested is expected to be
760,000 hectares, sugarcane yield at 64.2 MT/hectare, and factory recovery at 10.44
percent. Although seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states returned in mid
2024 benefitting the sugarcane crop, production has yet to recover fully from the effects
of severe drought from two seasons ago. Exports to the United States for 2025/26 are
projected at 572,489 MT on the assumption that Mexico authorities expect that the U.S.
additional specialty TRQ will be set no lower than the level of 2024/25 (231,485 STRV)
before the July WASDE. For 2024/25, production is reduced 37,000 MT to 4.774 million
as the season draws to an end. Imports, mostly for the IMMEX program, are reduced by
9,000 MT to 175,000. Deliveries from domestic production to the IMMEX program are
decreased by 61,000 MT as that program becomes more reliant on imports and also
high-fructose corn syrup. Ending stocks for 2024/25 decrease about 10,000 MT due to
less domestic production intended for the IMMEX program early in the next year. Ending
stocks of 150,000 MT of below 99.2 polarity are still expected to be available for export to
the United States in the first quarter of 2025/26.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total U.S. red meat and poultry production
forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer
and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder
of the year. Pork production is unchanged from the previous month. The Quarterly Hogs
and Pigs report, to be released on June 26, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for
slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2026. Broiler production is raised
on recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery
data. Egg production is lowered on recent layer inventory data, as well as recent
discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying flocks.
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For 2026, red meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef and turkey production.
Beef production is raised primarily on higher feedlot placements in the second half of
2025 and early 2026, which are expected to result in higher steer and heifer slaughter for
2026. Turkey production is raised on improved returns. The pork and broiler production
forecasts are unchanged.
The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised on recent trade data and continued strong
demand from key export markets. The beef import forecast is also raised on strong
imports from Oceania and South America, as well as robust domestic demand for lean
processing beef. The pork export forecast is reduced for 2025 on recent trade data and
increased export competition. For 2026, pork exports are also reduced on continued
export competition. The 2025 broiler export forecast is raised based on recent trade data
indicating higher shipments in the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 is
unchanged. The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lowered as higher U.S.
prices are expected to make exports less competitive in destination markets.
Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised on recent price strength and continued demand
for cattle. The increased price forecasts are carried over into 2026 as well. Hog price
forecasts are raised for 2025, based on recent prices, as well as relatively tight pork
inventories and increased cattle prices supporting hog demand. Raised hog price
forecasts carry over into early 2026. Broiler price forecasts are raised for the second half
of 2025 and into 2026, supported by higher prices of competing animal proteins. Turkey
price forecasts are also raised for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength. The
egg price forecast for 2025 is lowered slightly for the third quarter based on recent prices,
but the price forecast for 2026 is unchanged.
Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2025 and 2026. Based on the latest Milk
Production report, cow inventories are raised for 2025 and milk per cow is raised for both
2025 and 2026.
For 2025 and 2026, commercial exports forecasts are raised on a fat basis, primarily due
to competitively priced butter exports, as well as higher cheese and fluid product exports.
On a skim solids basis, export forecasts are reduced on lower shipments of nonfat dry
milk (NDM). Import forecasts for 2025 are raised on both a fat basis and skim-solids
basis. For 2026, imports are raised on a skim-solids basis, but unchanged on a fat basis.
For 2025, butter, cheese, whey, and NDM price forecasts are raised from the previous
month on recent price strength. The all milk price forecast is raised to $21.95 per cwt. For
2026, butter, cheese, and whey price forecasts are raised as strong demand is expected
to absorb the growth in milk production. NDM prices are unchanged from the previous
month. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised as well. The all milk price
forecast for 2026 is $21.30 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet is revised to show lower production,
beginning stocks and ending stocks, with consumption, imports, and exports unchanged
from last month. Harvested area is lowered 2 percent to 8.19 million acres following
extensive rainfall and delayed planting in the Delta. The national average yield for
2025/26 is reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 pounds per harvested
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acre, also because of the conditions in the Delta. As a result, the production forecast is
reduced 500,000 bales to 14.0 million, below the 14.4 million bales produced in 2024/25
and the second smallest crop in the past decade. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are
reduced 400,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for
2024/25. As a result, 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 900,000 bales to 4.3 million, for
a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.3 percent. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 is
unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, beginning and
ending stocks, and world trade are all revised downward. World production is lowered
over 800,000 bales as a 1-million bale increase for China is more than offset by
reductions for India, the United States, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced over
300,000 bales for 2025/26 as an increase for Egypt is more than offset by reductions for
India, Turkey and Bangladesh, with small changes elsewhere. Revisions to trade are
largely offsetting as global exports are lowered 40,000 bales. Beginning stocks for
2025/26 are lowered over 1.1 million bales, largely reflecting a 1-million reduction in
India’s 2024/25 crop. As a result, global ending stocks for 2025/26 are lowered nearly 1.6
million bales, primarily reflecting the reduction in beginning stocks and a decrease in
production that exceeds the decrease in consumption.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
BROOKE ROLLINS
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
