WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged from last
month. The projected season-average farm price remains $9.00 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and
consumption, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered slightly as an increase in
production nearly offsets a decrease in beginning stocks, which are lowered mostly on an
increase for China 2020/21 feed and residual use. This reduction is based on an
updated analysis of government old-crop wheat stocks auction data. Nearly offsetting
this change, global production is raised 5.1 million tons to 788.9 million primarily on
increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and India. Production estimates for all three
countries are raised on updated government data. Wheat production in Kazakhstan is
now forecast at 16.4 million tons, 2.4 million higher than last month, and the largest
harvest since 2011/12. World trade is raised 1.0 million tons to 213.9 million as increases
for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Brazil more than offset decreases for Argentina and India.
Global use is forecast 2.0 million tons higher to 793.2 million, largely on increases in
India food, seed, and industrial use and Kazakhstan feed and residual use. Global
ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China
more than offset increases for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Australia.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and
larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of
sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use
changes, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels from last month. The season-average
corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel based on
reported prices to date. Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.2 million tons lower to 1,439.6 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production,
consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down,
with a decline for Argentina partially offset by increases for India and Paraguay. For
Argentina, production is cut as continued heat and dryness during February and into
early March reduce yield prospects for late-planted corn. India corn production is higher
based on official government data. Foreign barley production is higher reflecting
increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Argentina. Foreign sorghum production is
lowered with declines for Australia and Argentina.
Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include higher projected corn exports for India,
Ukraine, and Paraguay, with reductions for Argentina and the United States. Corn
WASDE-634-2 imports are lowered for Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Morocco, Peru,
and Taiwan. Sorghum imports are lowered for China based on export cuts for Australia
and Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting
declines for Ukraine and Brazil that are partly offset by an increase for India. Global corn
ending stocks, at 296.5 million tons, are up 1.2 million.

RICE: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies and
domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Total rice exports are reduced 3.0
million cwt to 59.0 million on the continued sluggish pace of export sales and shipments.
Total exports are now only fractionally higher than the 1985/86 exports of 58.7 million cwt,
which is the last time exports declined to this level. Long-grain exports are decreased 2.0
million cwt to 45.0 million as near-record U.S. export prices continue to affect shipments to
Latin America, which are being displaced by more competitively-priced rice from South
American suppliers. Medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 14.0
million as record-high California prices are reducing Northeast Asian purchases. The
decrease in exports raises 2022/23 all rice ending stocks by an equivalent amount to 36.1
million cwt, which is still 9 percent below last year. The all rice season-average farm price
is unchanged at $19.40 per cwt with both the long and medium- and short-grain prices
unchanged.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.
Supplies are raised 7.0 million tons to 693.3 million with virtually all of the increase on
higher 2022/23 India production, which is raised 7.0 million tons to a record 132.0 million.
The increase is based on the Government of India Second Advanced Estimate and the
expectation the final production estimate will increase further based on recent history.
World 2022/23 consumption is raised 2.8 million tons to a record 520.0 million mainly on an
increase for India. Global trade is increased 0.9 million tons to 54.9 million as India exports
more than offset reductions for Uruguay and the United States. Projected world ending
stocks are raised 4.2 million tons to 173.3 million with China and India accounting for 81
percent of global rice stocks.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports,
lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean
exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.02 billion based on higher-than-expected
shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced on a small reduction in domestic
soybean meal disappearance combined with a higher extraction rate. With higher
exports more than offsetting lower crush, ending stocks are reduced 15 million bushels to
210 million. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest in seven years. With relatively
strong domestic demand for soybean oil limiting export competitiveness, U.S. soybean oil
exports are reduced 200 million pounds to a historically low 500 million. Higher domestic
use and reduced production are offsetting, leaving soybean oil stocks unchanged this
month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast for 2022/23 is unchanged at $14.30 per
bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $465 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The
soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 66.0 cents per pound.
WASDE-634-3
Global 2022/23 oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush,
and stocks. Global oilseed production is reduced 6.8 million tons to 629.9 million, mainly
on lower soybean and sunflowerseed production for Argentina partly offset by higher
Australia rapeseed production. Soybean production for Argentina is lowered 8.0 million
tons to 33.0 million on dry and hot weather conditions. Uruguay soybean production is
also lowered 0.2 million tons to 2.1 million. Australia rapeseed production is increased
1.0 million tons to 8.3 million on higher area and yield.
Global oilseed trade is up 1.9 million tons to 199.9 million on higher rapeseed and
soybean exports. Rapeseed exports are increased for Australia and Ukraine, in line with
higher imports for the EU and Pakistan. Soybean exports are higher for Brazil and the
United States, and imports are higher for Argentina to partly offset production losses.
Soybean imports are also raised for Iran and Turkey.
Global 2022/23 oilseed crush is lowered 3.3 million tons to 526.3 million, mainly on a
slower-than-expected soybean crush pace for China and lower available soybean and
sunflowerseed supplies for Argentina. Lower Argentina vegetable oil exports are offset
by higher shipments of palm oil from Malaysia and sunflowerseed oil from Turkey, Russia,
and Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.0 million tons to 100.0 million,
with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States that are partly offset by
higher stocks for China.

SUGAR: Ending stocks for 2022/23 are reduced by 154,186 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 1,720,240 on lower supply and increased use, resulting in an ending stocks-touse ratio of 13.5 percent. An increase in U.S. sugar production is more than offset by
lower expected imports. Beet sugar production is increased by 59,941 STRV to
5,160,157 on an increase in sucrose recovery from the 2022 sugarbeet crop. National
sucrose recovery from beets sliced during August 2022 through January 2023 is
estimated at 15.4 percent in Sweetener Market Data (SMD) and serves as the basis for
the increase for the crop year. Sucrose recoveries in all regions are above average with
the recovery in the Red River Valley region likely to be at a record high. Cane sugar
production in Florida is increased by 26,167 STRV to 2,039,845 but is decreased in
Texas by 11,018 STRV to 76,164. Both of these changes are from processors’ forecasts
in SMD. Louisiana cane sugar is increased by 4,297 STRV on processor data for
January published in the SMD report. Imports are decreased by 133,573 STRV on a
reduction of the Mexico Export Limit as set out in AD/CVD Suspension Agreements for
calculating U.S. Sugar Needs after the publication of this sugar WASDE. High-tier tariff
imports are increased to 155,630 STRV on a larger-than-anticipated import pace for
refined sugar. Also, raw sugar imports under the 2021/22 TRQ are increased on
revisions made by Customs for entries in December. Deliveries for human consumption
are increased by 100,000 STRV to 12,600,000 on the strong pace through January.
Mexico sugar production is reduced by 415,000 metric tons (MT) to 5,485,000. The
campaign has been off the mark since its start with the USDA estimating the pace
through the end of December at least 15 percent behind the pace established over the
preceding 9 years. Since then, area harvested has recovered and is forecast by USDA at
about 820,000 hectares. Sugarcane yields continue to be far below normal estimated
WASDE-634-4
through February 25 at 2.911 standard deviations below the average since 2012/13.
USDA projects no improvement and has the 2022/23 national yield at 60.79 MT/hectare,
far below the 9-year average of 75.40. Sucrose recovery has been poor as well but is
slowly recovering over the course of the campaign; USDA projects it between 10.968 and
11.053 percent. Mexico exports are projected at 1,121,278 MT with almost all expected
for shipment to the United States under export license. USDA projects below 99.2 pol
sugar production between 784,000 and 805,200 MT, amounts roughly between 70 and 72
percent of the projected Export Limit of 1,117,635 MT. Refined sugar making up the
remainder of the allocation implies offsetting domestic use reductions. USDA projects
lower deliveries to the IMMEX program and lower ending stocks.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use
estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect revisions to slaughter and production data.
For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter projections
are raised through the first three quarters of the year on higher cow slaughter and
increased placements of cattle in feedlots in the first quarter of 2023, which will likely be
marketed in the third quarter. Pork production is lowered as a higher-than-previouslyexpected pace of slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by lighter first-half
carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production is raised for the first quarter on recent
hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter. Egg production is reduced slightly on
recent hatchery data.
Turkey exports are lowered for the first half of 2023 on expectations of weaker demand in
key markets. Trade projections for all other meats are unchanged.
For 2023, cattle prices are raised for all four quarters on expectations of firm demand
amidst tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are lowered for first-half 2023 reflecting
current price movements. Broiler prices are projected higher in the first quarter on recent
data. Egg prices for the first half are raised on recent prices and lower supply
projections.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect revisions to estimates of
milk production and stocks.
For 2023, milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory. Output per cow is
unchanged from last month. On both fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are
raised, while exports are reduced.
Cheese prices are lowered as supplies are expected to be relatively large and domestic
demand is projected to be relatively soft. Butter prices are raised on recent data. Nonfat
dry milk prices are unchanged, with a weaker first quarter offset by a stronger fourth
quarter. Whey prices are raised on recent price observations and stronger expected
demand. With the changes in component prices, Class III prices are projected lower,
while Class IV prices are projected higher. The all milk price is projected lower at 20.45
per cwt.
WASDE-634-5

COTTON: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are
unchanged relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received
by producers is also unchanged at 83 cents per pound.
The global 2022/23 cotton supply and demand forecasts this month include lower
consumption and trade, and higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are almost
900,000 bales higher as historical consumption estimates for China and Uzbekistan are
updated to align with data from official and other sources. World cotton consumption in
2022/23 is 555,000 bales lower this month with reductions in Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia,
and Bangladesh. Projected imports are lower for each of these countries—and for
China—while exports are lower for Brazil, India, and Argentina, with world trade totaling
785,000 bales lower. Production is more than 700,000 bales higher as larger expected
crops in China, Australia, and Uzbekistan more than offset reduced prospects for India.
At 91.1 million bales, 2022/23 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million higher than a
month earlier and 5.0 million higher than in 2021/22.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural
Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE