WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged
domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised as wheat production is
projected at 1,929 million bushels, up 8 million from last month on higher yields more than offsetting
reduced harvested area. The all wheat yield is 52.6 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month.
Winter wheat production is lowered 36 million bushels to 1,345 million with reductions in Hard Red
Winter and Soft Red Winter. The initial 2025/26 survey-based production forecasts from NASS
indicate that other spring wheat is less than last year at 504 million bushels on lower harvested area
and yields while Durum is slightly lower at 80 million on reduced yields. Exports are raised by 25
million bushels to 850 million on a strong early pace of sales and shipments. Projected 2025/26
ending stocks are lowered 8 million bushels to 890 million but are up 5 percent from last year. The
projected 2025/26 season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $5.40 per bushel, down from
last year’s final SAFP of $5.52.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption, lower trade,
and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are projected down 0.4 million tons to 1,072.1 million on
reduced beginning stocks for multiple countries and lower production for Canada, Ukraine, and Iran
more than offsetting higher production for Kazakhstan, the EU, Pakistan, and Russia. Global
consumption is raised 0.8 million tons to 810.6 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for
Kazakhstan and Thailand. World trade is 1.3 million tons lower at 213.1 million on reduced exports
for the EU and Ukraine only partially offset by higher exports for Russia and the United States.
Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million, primarily on
reductions for Canada and the EU.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, domestic use,
and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an
increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024/25. Feed and residual
use is down 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports
are raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date
and, if realized, would be record high. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast down 115 million
bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is
unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed
and residual use based on lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down
90 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per
bushel.
Barley production is up fractionally as slightly higher area in the Acreage report more than offsets a
decline in yield to 77.1 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Oats production is raised
14 million bushels reflecting higher area and an increase in yield to 75.5 bushels per acre. Sorghum
production is reduced 25 million bushels based on the lower area reported in the Acreage report.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.6 million tons lower to 1.547 billion. This
month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, total use, and stocks relative to
last month. Foreign corn production is raised reflecting area increases for Canada and Mexico. For
2024/25, corn production is raised for Brazil and the Philippines with a partly offsetting decline for
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Mexico. Brazil corn yield expectations are boosted this month based on reported second crop harvest
results to date for the Center-West. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is down with cuts for
Turkey, Russia, the EU, Ukraine, and United Kingdom partly offset by larger production prospects for
Kazakhstan.
Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger corn imports for Zimbabwe and Egypt but
reductions for Canada and Mexico. For 2024/25 corn exports are raised for the United States and
Canada but lowered for Turkey. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are cut, with reductions for
China and India partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 272.1 million tons, are
down 3.2 million.

RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and
ending stocks. All rice supplies are decreased by 7.9 million cwt to 302.7 million with less production.
All rice production is projected at 205.0 million cwt on lower harvested area indicated in the NASS
Acreage report issued June 30. Heavy rainfall and flooding in April and May disrupted planting in the
Delta region, particularly in northeastern Arkansas. Forecasts for exports and domestic and residual
use are both lowered on smaller supplies. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected down 5 percent
from the prior year to 44.7 million cwt. The all rice, long-grain, and other state medium- and short
grain season-average farm prices are all raised $0.50 per cwt to $14.00, $13.00 and $13.50
respectively as lower supplies have raised price expectations.
The 2025/26 global rice outlook is for virtually unchanged supplies, increased consumption, slightly
more trade, and smaller stocks. World supplies are virtually unchanged as reduced production in the
United States is offset by higher beginning stocks primarily in the Philippines and Ghana. Global rice
consumption and residual use is projected at a record 541.6 million tons, up 0.6 million from last
month, largely on an increase for China as additional government stocks are expected to be released
primarily for feed use. World trade increases fractionally to 61.8 million tons, on higher exports from
Burma. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are 187.3 million tons, down this month for China and
Burma.

OILSEEDS: Following the June 30 NASS Acreage report, U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is
projected at 128.3 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month on lower soybean, sunflower,
canola, and peanut production partly offset by higher cottonseed.
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower production, higher crush, reduced
exports, and increased ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3
billion bushels, down 5 million from last month on lower harvested acres and an unchanged yield of
52.5 bushels per acre.
U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion, supported by higher
demand for soybean oil for biofuel. This month’s report assumes the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency’s (EPA) proposed rule for required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027
when evaluating soybean oil demand. EPA not only significantly raised the mandates but also
proposed to reduce the number of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generated for imported
renewable fuels and renewable fuels produced from foreign feedstocks starting in 2026, which
increases demand for domestically produced feedstocks like soybean oil.
Along with EPA’s proposed rule, the forecast considered additional policy incentives like the 45Z
Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit and current state mandates. As a result, soybean oil used for
biofuel for 2025/26 is raised 1.6 billion pounds to 15.5 billion, reflecting a 23 percent increase from
the prior 3-year average. Given higher domestic demand for biofuel, soybean oil imports are raised
and exports are reduced. Soybean oil in the residual category (food, feed, and other industrial use) is
unchanged. Higher stocks at biofuel facilities that fall into this category could displace other uses,
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which are expected to be partially offset by higher use of canola oil and palm oil. Soybean oil ending
stocks are raised 0.1 billion pounds to 1.7 billion.
With higher soybean oil prices supporting crush margins and higher crush in 2025/26, soybean meal
production is raised 1.2 million short tons. Domestic disappearance is increased 0.5 million short tons
to 41.8 million, a 3 percent increase over the prior year. The export forecast is raised 0.7 million short
tons to 18.7 million.
U.S. soybean exports for 2025/26 are lowered 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion on higher U.S.
domestic demand, higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine, and larger Brazilian supplies at the end
of September during the U.S. peak export season. With lower U.S. soybean exports partly offset by
higher crush, ending stocks are increased 15 million bushels to 310 million. The U.S. season-average
soybean price for 2025/26 is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The
soybean meal price is lowered $20 to $290 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 7 cents
to 53 cents per pound.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher supply, increased crush,
lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on trade revisions in the prior
marketing year. Higher beginning stocks for Brazil are partly offset by lower stocks for China, Mexico,
and Ukraine. Global soybean production is raised on higher production for Ukraine based on
observed government planting progress data. Global crush is raised 1.1 million tons to 367.7 million.
Crush is raised for the United States, Ukraine, and Turkey, but lowered for India, Mexico, and Saudi
Arabia. As a result of higher global soybean crush, global soybean meal trade is raised this month
with higher imports for Colombia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Vietnam.
Global soybean exports are lowered as reduced U.S. exports are partly offset by higher exports for
Argentina and Ukraine. Imports are lowered for India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Global soybean
ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 126.1 million on higher stocks for Brazil and the
United States partly offset by lower stocks for China, Argentina, and Mexico.

SUGAR: Sugar supply for 2025/26 is projected at 13.808 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an
increase of 34,445 over last month as higher beginning stocks plus a small increase in imports more
than offset a production decrease. Use is projected 165,000 STRV lower and ending stocks are up
199,445 STRV to 1.643 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are increased 86,993 STRV resulting primarily from an 80,000 STRV
reduction in 2024/25 deliveries for human consumption to 12.045 million. This reduction is based on
the disappointingly weak pace of deliveries through the first 8 months of the fiscal year, down by over
3 percent year-over-year. Deliveries for 2025/26 are likewise decreased 165,000 STRV to 11.960
million. Deliveries for October-December 2025 are decreased by 3.04 percent relative to the same
period in 2024 and estimated deliveries for January-September 2026 are projected flat with the same
period for 2025.
Imports under quota at 1.419 million STRV for 2025/26 are unchanged and still based on minimum
access WTO bindings and with allocations set for various FTAs. The additional specialty sugar TRQ
has not yet been announced. Sources in the organic sweetener industry estimate that as much as
200,000 metric tons (235,895 STRV) would likely enter paying the high duty in the absence of an
additional specialty TRQ. Accordingly, high-tier tariff imports are increased by that amount pending
the establishment of an additional specialty TRQ. Imports from Mexico under export license are
projected at 439,275, a decrease of 229,650 based on U.S. Needs as defined in the AD/CVD
Suspension Agreements. Sugar production for 2025/26 is projected 58,793 STRV lower than last
month. Beet sugar production is projected 53,073 STRV lower at 5.097 million on lower area planted
and harvested reported in the NASS Acreage report. Cane sugar in Florida is decreased by 5,720
STRV on processors’ projections submitted to USDA.
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Mexico beginning stocks for 2025/26 are increased 27,342 metric tons (MT). This is a result of
2024/25 changes in use (deliveries down 94,000 MT offset by an increase of 62,658 in exports) and a
4,000 MT decrease in 2024/25 production. Exports for 2025/26 are up by the same 27,342 MT level.
However, exports to the United States are down by 196,542 MT as discussed above, and exports not
under license are increased by 223,884 MT.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2025 is
forecast lower than last month, with lower beef and turkey production more than offsetting higher pork
and broiler production. Pork production is raised this month as lower production in the second quarter
of the year is more than offset by higher expected dressed weights and slaughter in the second half
of the year, based on recent pig crops reported in NASS’s June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
Broiler production is raised for the second and third quarters on higher weights. Beef production is
lowered on a slower pace of slaughter and reduced dressed weights. Turkey production is lowered
primarily on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered on the recent hatchery
data.
For 2026, the beef production forecast is raised. Higher expected feedlot placements are expected
during the second half of 2025, as strong demand for beef supports feeder cattle prices. The forecast
assumes cattle imports from Mexico remain banned for the duration of the forecast period due to the
presence of New World Screwworm. Pork production is raised, as higher expected pig crops during
the second half of 2025 are expected to result in higher slaughter in the first half of 2026. Broiler,
turkey, and egg production forecasts are unchanged for 2026.
Beef import forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised on recent trade data, with the increased pace of
imports expected to continue through the end of 2026. Beef exports are raised for 2025 on recent
trade data. Beef exports for 2026 are also raised on higher production. Pork exports for 2025 are
raised on higher expected shipments during the second half of the year. The 2026 pork export
forecast is unchanged. Broiler exports are reduced for both 2025 and 2026 on international
competition from exporters in key markets. No changes are made to export forecasts for turkey in
2025 or 2026.
The cattle price forecast in 2025 is lowered slightly based on reported data through the end of the
second quarter. No changes are made to the forecasts for the second half of 2025 or 2026. Hog price
forecasts are raised for 2025 and 2026 on recent price strength and reduced beef supplies during the
second half of 2025. The broiler price forecast for 2025 is raised for the third quarter on recent price
strength. The broiler price forecast for 2026 is unchanged. The turkey price forecast for 2025 is
raised on tightening supplies, which is expected to carry through the remainder of the year. Egg
prices are increased in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 on strengthening demand for shell eggs
and tighter supplies on lower production. For 2026, egg price forecasts are unchanged.
The milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised from last month on higher cow
inventories and an increased rate of growth in milk per cow based on the latest NASS Milk
Production report.
For 2025, commercial dairy exports are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis, primarily on
increased shipments of cheese and dried skim milk products. For 2026, commercial exports are also
raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis. Commercial imports for 2025 are lowered on a fat basis
but increased on a skim-solids basis. For 2026, fat basis imports are raised while skim-solids basis
imports are lowered.
For 2025, the price forecast for cheese is lowered on recent prices. Butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM),
and whey prices are increased from the previous month’s forecast on robust demand. The Class III
price for 2025 is lowered, as lower cheese prices more than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV
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price is raised on higher butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast higher at $22.00 per
cwt.
For 2026, butter, NDM, and whey prices are raised, while the cheese price is unchanged. The Class
III price is raised on increased whey prices. The Class IV price is raised on higher butter and NDM
prices. The all milk price is raised to $21.65 per cwt.

COTTON: The July U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2025/26 shows higher production and ending
stocks, lower beginning stocks, and unchanged consumption and imports compared to last month.
Planted area is raised to 10.12 million acres based on the NASS June Acreage report. Harvested
area is increased 6 percent to 8.66 million acres, reflecting higher planted area along with lower
abandonment in the Southwest that is partially offset by higher abandonment in the Southeast. The
national average yield for 2025/26 is lowered 1 percent to 809 pounds per harvested acre as the
reduced abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of more lower-yielding dryland acres.
With the increase in harvested area exceeding the yield reduction, the production forecast is
increased 600,000 bales from June’s projection to 14.60 million, and up from 14.41 million last year.
Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 300,000 bales following a corresponding increase in
projected exports for 2024/25. These revisions result in 2025/26 ending stocks of 4.60 million bales,
up 300,000 from last month, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4 percent. The projected season-average
upland price for 2025/26 is unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and ending stocks are raised
while trade and beginning stocks are reduced. World production is increased 1.43 million bales as
China’s crop is raised 1 million bales, the U.S. crop is raised 600,000 bales and Mexico’s crop is
raised 100,000 bales, partially offset by reductions for Pakistan and Egypt. Global consumption is
raised 365,000 bales with increases for Pakistan and Mexico partially offset by reductions for Italy
and Germany. Global exports are lowered 100,000 bales. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced
510,000 bales, reflecting reductions in the United States and China and small changes elsewhere.
However, ending stocks for 2025/26 are increased by 520,000 bales as higher production more than
offsets the increase in consumption and decline in beginning stocks.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.