Media Release: USDA
WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic
use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down
2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield.
The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for
Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter.
Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest
NASS Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the
continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected
ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. The 2025/26 season-average
farm price is reduced by $0.10 per bushel to $5.30 on a lower projected U.S. corn price and price
expectation for wheat the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, higher trade,
and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are projected to drop 2.5 million tons to 1,069.6 million
primarily on lower production for China, Brazil, and Argentina that is only partly offset by a larger
forecast for the EU. In addition, smaller beginning stocks are forecast for several countries
including Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines. Production in China is lowered 2.0 million
tons to 140.0 million on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating smaller-than-expected
yields. EU production is raised 1.0 million tons to 138.3 million, which would be the highest since
2021/22; several months of favorable weather conditions have improved quality and yield
prospects primarily in Romania and Slovakia. Global consumption is lowered 1.1 million tons to
809.5 million, mainly on reduced feed and residual use for China, Indonesia, and the Philippines
that is only partly offset by larger use in the EU. World trade is increased 0.5 million tons to 213.5
million primarily on increased exports by the United States. Projected 2025/26 global ending
stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons to 260.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies,
greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for
2025/26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. For
2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose
and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0
billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If
realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The
season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8
bushels higher than last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast up 24 million bushels
to 391 million. The yield is forecast at 69.0 bushels per acre, slightly above last month’s
projection while harvested area is up 0.4-million acres.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion. Feed and
residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower
expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use
during 2024/25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion.
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Exports are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export
competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more
than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the
highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. The season-average corn price received by producers
is lowered 30 cents $3.90 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 24.9 million tons higher to 1.572 billion.
This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending
stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and
Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia
extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield
prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada
is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is
reduced with a decline for Uruguay.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for the United
States and Ukraine but reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the
EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down,
reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for
Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for higher supplies, domestic and residual
use, and exports with slightly lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on both higher beginning
stocks and production. The initial survey-based production forecast for the 2025/26 crop year
increased production to 208.5 million cwt as higher harvested area offsets a lower yield. The
average all rice yield is forecast at 7,636 pounds per acre, down 109 pounds from the prior
forecast. Long-grain production is forecast at 154.5 million cwt and combined medium- and short
grain production is forecast at 54.0 million. Projected all rice imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt
(all long-grain) to 49.7 million on increased U.S. supplies but still remain at a record. All rice
domestic use and residual is raised 2.0 million cwt (all long-grain) to 167.0 million on increased
supplies. All rice exports are raised 4.0 million cwt to 97.0 million on increased supplies and
stronger sales of U.S. medium- and short-grain to Japan. Projected ending stocks are reduced
0.1 million cwt to 44.6 million, down 12 percent from last year. The 2025/26 all rice season
average farm price (SAFP) is $0.20 per cwt higher at $14.20 per cwt, all on an increase for the
California medium- and short-grain SAFP.
The 2025/26 global rice outlook this month is for slightly lower supplies, fractionally higher
consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 0.2 million tons to 728.7
million, mainly on lower beginning stocks for Nigeria, Burma, and Thailand more than offsetting
an increase for India. World 2025/26 consumption is raised 0.4 million tons to a record 542.0
million as an increase for Nigeria more than offsets reductions for several countries. Global
2025/26 trade is up 0.4 million tons to 62.1 million, primarily on Burma and the United States.
Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 186.7 million, mostly on
Nigeria, the Philippines, and Burma more than offsetting higher stocks for India.
OILSEEDS: The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production,
and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and
exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion
bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is
forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield
forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the
slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at
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2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from
last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecast unchanged at $10.10 per bushel.
The soybean meal price is forecast at $280 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price
forecast is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Global 2025/26 oilseed production is lowered 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million mainly on lower
soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. Global sunflowerseed production is
lowered 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million on hot and dry weather conditions leading to lower yields
for the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include lower production, exports, and
ending stocks. Global production for 2025/26 is lowered mainly on lower production for the
United States and Serbia. Exports are reduced for the United States but raised for Argentina and
Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are reduced
1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the
United States.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased 336,526 short tons, raw value (STRV) to
14.719 million on increases in production and imports. Beet sugar production is increased 93,360
STRV to 5.415 million on more sugarbeets being sliced than estimated last month (lower beet
pile shrink) and also on an increase in the sucrose recovery rate of sliced beets with data
estimated though June. Cane sugar production is revised downward slightly on processors’
reporting in Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Imports are increased 245,528 STRV to 3.202
million. High-tier tariff imports are up 137,177 STRV (127,178 raw and 9,999 refined) and re
export imports are up 125,000 based on the pace to date. A reduction in imports under quota
provides a small offset. Use is up 30,000 STRV on increases for exports (25,000) and other
deliveries (5,000). Ending stocks at 2.439 million STRV are up 306,526 and the implied ending
stocks-to-use ratio is at 19.9 percent.
U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is increased 516,773 STRV on a combination of increases in
beginning stocks and sugar production more than offsetting a smaller reduction in imports. Beet
sugar production is projected at 5.266 million STRV, an increase of 169,533 over last month due
to a NASS forecast of national sugarbeet production of 35.024 million tons on a yield of 32.9
tons/acre and area harvested of 1.065 million acres. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is
projected at 2.154 million STRV, an increase of 65,971 over last month. NASS forecasts
Louisiana sugarcane production at 16.80 million tons on a yield of 32.0 tons/acre (up from 31.3
last year) and area harvested of 525,000 acres (up from 523,300 last year). Cane sugar
production in Florida is decreased slightly from last month to 2.008 million STRV based on
processors’ reporting. NASS forecasts Florida sugarcane production at 17.13 million tons, down
from 18.02 million last year. Processors are expecting improved sucrose recovery this season
compared with last year. There are no changes to 2025/26 sugar use. Ending stocks are
residually projected at 2.160 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 17.75 percent, up
from 13.50 percent last month.
Mexico sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased only very slightly over last month on final
production data reported by CONADESUCA. Exports not under license are increased by 34,577
based on the pace to date. The corresponding decrease in 2025/26 beginning stocks is matched
by a decrease in exports not under license. In both years exports under license to the United
States are unaffected.
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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is
reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter
and lighter dressed weights. Pork production is reduced reflecting official data reported through
the first half of the year, as well as a slower slaughter rate and reduced dressed weights in the
third and fourth quarters. Broiler production is raised reflecting recent production and hatchery
data. Turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data indicating lower production in the
fourth quarter of the year. Egg production is lowered on reported data through June and slower
growth expected in the second half of the year based on recent hatchery data.
For 2026, beef production is lowered due to reduced expected placements in the second half of
2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026. Pork production is lowered on reduced
slaughter and lighter dressed weights carrying into 2026. Broiler and turkey production are raised
for the year on lower feed costs and supportive demand due to tighter red meat supplies. Egg
production forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Beef imports for 2025 are lowered to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year,
as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil. The reduction is
carried into beef imports for 2026. The beef export forecast is reduced for 2025, reflecting tighter
domestic supplies. The reduction is carried into lower exports for the first half of 2026. The pork
export forecast for 2025 is raised based on official data reported through June and no changes
are made to 2026 pork exports. The broiler export forecast is also raised for 2025 based on data
through June and is unchanged for 2026. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is raised on data
through June and higher exports for the third quarter. The 2026 turkey export forecast is
unchanged.
Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent
price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into
2026. The 2025 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices, with increases continuing
into 2026 on tighter pork supplies. Broiler price forecasts for 2025 are reduced for the second
half of the year based on recent price declines through early August, with reduced prices carrying
into next year. Turkey prices are raised for the second half of 2025 and 2026 based on recent
price strength and support from tight supplies of red meat. The egg price forecast for 2025 is
reduced on lower fourth-quarter prices reflecting recent prices and improved shell egg
inventories. The egg price forecast in 2026 is unchanged.
The milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised from last month. The cow inventories
are raised for both years based on the most recent data in the Milk Production report. The growth
in output per cow is also increased for 2025 and 2026.
Fat basis imports for 2025 are reduced from last month, mainly on butterfat products. Skim-solids
basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher milk protein concentrates. For 2026, imports are
raised on skim-solids basis reflecting higher imports of milk protein concentrates but are
unchanged on a fat basis. The 2025 fat basis export forecast is raised on higher expected
shipments of butter and cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2025 is also raised on
more exports of dried skim milk products and whey products. The fat basis export forecast for
2026 is raised on higher exports of cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2026 is
raised primarily on higher shipments of whey products, lactose, and dried skim milk products.
The price forecast for 2025 butter is lowered from the previous month based on recent price
weakness. The 2025 price forecasts for cheese and whey are unchanged, while nonfat dry milk
(NDM) is raised. The Class III price is unchanged based on cheese and whey prices. The Class
IV price is lowered on lower butter more than offsetting higher NDM. The all milk price is
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unchanged at $22.00 per cwt. For 2026, the price forecasts for butter and NDM are raised based
on firm demand from domestic and international markets. Cheese and whey prices are
unchanged from last month. As a result, the Class III milk price is unchanged from last month
and the Class IV price is increased. The all milk price is also raised to $21.90 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet for August reflects lower production, exports,
and beginning and ending stocks, along with unchanged consumption and imports compared to
last month. Planted area is lowered 8 percent to 9.3 million acres based on the NASS August
Crop Production report. Harvested area is reduced 15 percent to 7.4 million acres as dryness in
the Southwest raises the expected national abandonment rate from 14 percent to 21 percent.
The national average yield for 2025/26 is raised over 6 percent to 862 pounds per harvested acre
as higher abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of fewer lower-yielding dryland
acres. The production forecast is reduced to 13.2 million bales, almost 1.4 million bales below
the July forecast and 1.2 million bales lower than 2024/25. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales
because of the smaller crop. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 100,000 bales following a
corresponding increase in exports for 2024/25. As a result of these revisions, ending stocks for
2025/26 are projected at 3.6 million bales, down 1 million from last month, for a stocks-to-use
ratio of 26.3 percent. With tighter domestic supplies, the projected season-average upland price
for 2025/26 is raised this month to 64 cents per pound.
In the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, trade, and beginning and
ending stocks are all lowered compared to last month. World production is forecast 1.8 million
bales lower as a result of reductions for the United States, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali that
more than offset a larger crop in China. The forecast for world consumption is reduced over
100,000 bales as lower mill use in India, Bangladesh, and Turkey more than offsets an increase
for China. World trade is reduced 1.1 million bales with projected exports lowered for the United
States, Sudan, Mali, and small changes elsewhere. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced
over 1.7 million bales, largely reflecting higher 2024/25 consumption in China and Brazil. With
lower beginning stocks and production, ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced by over 3.4 million
bales.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
